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Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction
This paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework designed to significantly improve subseasonal weather forecasts (2-6 weeks ahead) by correcting systematic errors in existing dynamical and AI models. PBC has demonstrated superior performance in real-time forecasting competitions, enhancing predictions for temperature, pressure, and precipitation, and improving the accuracy of extreme event warnings.